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UID:225511
DTSTAMP:20251023T092004Z
DTSTART;TZID=America/New_York:20251024T110000
DTEND;TZID=America/New_York:20251024T115000
URL;TYPE=URI:https://wpiedudev.wpi.edu/news/calendar/events/department-math
 ematical-sciences-colloquium-ronnie-sircar-princeton-university
SUMMARY:Department of Mathematical Sciences Colloquium: Ronnie Sircar, Prin
 ceton University
DESCRIPTION:\n\n\n      \n\n\n\nDepartment of Mathematical Sciences\nColloq
 uium\nFriday, October 24th, 2025\n11:00AM-11:50AM\nStratton Hall 202\nSpea
 ker: Ronnie Sircar, Princeton University\nTitle: ORFEUS -- Operational Ris
 k Financialization of Electricity under Stochasticity\nAbstract: We descri
 be part of a multi-year project, sponsored by ARPA-E, to quantify, allocat
 e and account for the risk introduced to electricity grids due to the unpr
 edictable reliability of production from renewables. Incorporating this st
 ochasticity into grid risk management is viewed by the industry (which has
  remained almost entirely tethered to a deterministic viewpoint, and in pa
 rticular to weather forecasts) as increasingly crucial, as we aim for grea
 ter renewables penetration to reduce dependence on carbon-emitting fuels. 
 Our methodology involves feeding Monte Carlo simulations of solar, wind an
 d demand into a grid optimization software that emulates the performance a
 nd costs of the Texas electricity grid. This outputs a distribution of run
 ning costs, from which we can numerically extract a measure of system (gri
 d) risk. The more challenging part is to allocate this risk back (top down
 ) to the individual renewable assets to assign them a reliability cost. Th
 is adapts existing approaches for the risk allocation problem related to S
 hapley values, but is computationally intense. We show results, project to
  potential future grids, and propose a way to incorporate the reliability 
 costs back into the day ahead bid curve and thereby re-optimize unit commi
 tment and economic dispatch of assets taking into (some) account the stoch
 asticity.\n\nNote: This event is hybrid. Zoom link available on request.\n
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